The Smart Grid Co-Opted

A Technology Revolution Stuffed within a Paradigm Change

My colleague, Bart Thielbar, makes some excellent points in his blog: "The Whole is Greater Than the Sum of the Parts". As Bart notes, often we do get bogged down in details when in the midst of significant change.   

One thing that has been certain for the last couple of centuries is that technological change continues to accelerate.  It likely will continue to do so, barring cataclysmic natural or man-made change, which certainly cannot entirely be barred.  Things like earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, tornados, wars, and even disasters on a cosmic scale (stray meteors or such) have an interesting way of interrupting mankind's best-laid plans. 

The technological change that has enabled the "smart grid" or a more "intelligent utility" certainly presages more efficient electrical delivery.  That technology is mostly ready, is being applied to the grid as rapidly as economically feasible, and certainly will change how electricity is priced and delivered.  That has been the evolution of technological development.  We've come a long way from the wheel, or the horse-and-buggy, to space shuttles and the iPad. 

However, I see what is happening to our industry now as fundamentally different.  At the same time technology continues to advance, smart grid technology is being co-opted, or pressed into service, for a proposed paradigm change for electric usage in the United States and around the world. The paradigm we have been in since Thomas Edison is: More cheap electricity for more people, enabling more development, invention and ubiquitous comfort in a less labor-intensive economy.  

The paradigm change now being promoted by many (not all, but many) is from a standard of ubiquitous, low-cost electricity to one of rationed, much higher-cost electricity.  Much of the smart grid movement now is directed by government and regulation to encouraging citizens to use less electricity and adjust their lifestyles to use it at only certain times of the day.  Boosting the price of electricity, at least for parts of the day (Time of Use Pricing), is a major goal of many to enable the paradigm shift.  No matter what else you may call this new goal, it does constitute a paradigm change from the past 100 years of technological and economic development. 

Regardless of whether you agree or disagree with the drivers behind this proposed paradigm change--primarily environmental concerns--it is obvious that this change is significant.   No longer is the goal ubiquitous, low-cost electricity, but rather less electricity usage by an increasing population.   No longer is the goal efficient, high-speed personal transportation, but smaller, limited-range more environmentally benign vehicles.  No longer is the goal to enable people to live where they like, but rather to encourage congregation in cities to save resources.  If you don't believe this is a goal, you should attend one of IBM's "Smart Cities" conferences. 

I think you can, and should, expect some discontent and foot-dragging on the part of a population that had become accustomed to the idea that "more is better".   I don't expect the discontent Bart describes in his blog to go away.  Many people just aren't ready to make that change and I wonder if they ever will be. There is little doubt that the technology changes of the past several years hold much promise for the industry; however, that promise is compromised when the technology becomes subservient to politics, even environmental politics. Business needs and opportunities/business cases should guide technology investments, not the political flavor of the day.